Part 3. Is the Two State Solution Dead? Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in the 21st Century

The Second Intifada

The failure of Camp David II, coupled with increasing restrictions upon Palestinians and growing poverty in the Occupied Territories, led to an inevitable outbreak of further hostilities between Israelis and Palestinians.  The Intifada broke out in response to a visit to the Temple Mount by Ariel Sharon, accompanied by almost a thousand Israeli riot police.  Palestinians, along with much of the international community, hold Sharon responsible for the 1982 Sabra and Shatila massacre in Beirut.

The second Intifada dragged on for several years, featuring continued conflicts between Palestinians and Israeli forces.  Between 2000-2008 over 1,000 Israelis and close to 4800 Palestinians were killed in inter-communal violence.  The end date of the Intifada is disputed.  Some tie it to the death of Yasser Arafat (Nov 2004), others to Israel’s unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip (completed Aug 2005), while still others point to the Sharm el-Sheikh summit of Feb 2005.

Ariel Sharon and Israeli Unilateralism

As the second Intifada continued on, Sharon was elected prime minister of Israel in March 2001, after promising to increase Israeli security from Palestinian attacks.  Sharon, a longtime member of Likud and proponent of constructing Jewish settlements in the West Bank, argued that the Palestinians did not really desire peace, and that it was up to Israel to unilaterally establish a settlement.

In 2003, Sharon supported the “Road Map for Peace,” championed by U.S. president George W. Bush along with the European Union and Russia.  He announced that he would support the future creation of a Palestinian state.  Sharon decided to unilaterally disengage from the Gaza Strip, announcing his policy in 2003, obtaining Knesset approval in February 2005 and implementing the withdrawal in August of that year.  He later split with the Likud party (in Nov 2005) and formed his own new party, Kadima, after Likud members failed to support his plan of unilateral disengagement from Gaza.

Hardline Jewish settlers opposed the withdrawal from Gaza, not wanting to give up any land under Israeli control, but Sharon held firm.  Compensation plans were offered to Jewish settlers who were forced to relocate, and all Jewish settlements in the Gaza strip were closed, with some settlers having to be removed by force.  Following the completion of Israeli withdrawal, Palestinians took full control of the Gaza Strip in September 2005.

Another project initiated by Sharon was the separation fence.  The idea of a separation wall, cutting off Palestinian populations in the West Bank from Israel proper, had been proposed by earlier Israeli governments, but was first implemented by Ariel Sharon’s government in 2002. Twenty years later, the majority of the wall has now been completed.  The idea was presented to Israelis as the only way to secure Israeli citizens from future terrorist attacks.  In order to safeguard Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the fence has followed a line that moves significantly into the West Bank, confiscating Palestinian territory and earning criticism by many outside observers.  A United Nations resolution to sanction Israel for illegal construction of this wall was vetoed by the United States in 2003.

Sharon’s term in office ended following two strokes that incapacitated him and later sent him into a coma in December 2005 and January 2006.  He died in the hospital in January 2014.

Hamas-Fatah Civil War and Palestinian Political Stalemate

In a result that surprised many outsiders, Hamas won the Palestinian legislative election of January 2006.  The United States and Israel both declared this election to be illegitimate and refused to recognize a Hamas run government.  Feeling that it was not receiving the agreed upon power, Hamas forcibly took control of Gaza in June 2007.  Sporadic fighting took place between Hamas and Fatah, with the upshot being that Fatah controls the Palestinian government in the West Bank, whereas Hamas rules the Palestinians in Gaza.

Declared to be a terrorist organization, the Hamas government has faced international blockades, led by Israel, and resulting in severe hardship for Palestinians living in Gaza.  Hamas has repeatedly fired rockets into Israel from Gaza, resulting in wars between Hamas and Israel in 2008, 2012 and 2014.  There were also clashes in May 2019, April/May 2021, and August 2022.  Israel has invaded and bombed Hamas, killing many civilians but failing to completely eliminate Hamas’s ability to launch rockets into Israel.  Israel also blockades ships from approaching Gaza in the Mediterranean, in the name of self defense.  It cooperates with Egypt to cut off Palestinian access to the Sinai peninsula.

Most Palestinians are not satisfied with the status quo, which leaves them mostly imprisoned within their territories, in poverty and with little political freedom.  Demonstrations in 2018, when thousands of unarmed Palestinians approached the Gaza-Israeli border in a “Great March of Return” were met with violence from the IDF.  Hundreds of Palestinians died and thousands were injured.  The chart below shows numbers of Palestinians killed at different spots.

After years of blockade by land, sea and air, Gaza is dealing with a decimated infrastructure, political repression, high unemployment, stifled economic growth, and a looming humanitarian disaster.  Israel blames the crisis on Hamas, which it accuses of spending its money on arms and attacks on Israel rather than providing for the physical needs of Gaza’s population.  The Palestinian Authority has not cooperated with Hamas, at times refusing to pay Gaza’s electrical bill.

Palestinian conditions are somewhat better in the West Bank, but there is still little freedom of movement between checkpoints and the presence of Israel’s military police, as well as the continued growth of Israeli settlements throughout the territory.

Netanyahu in Charge

In the election of 2009, Benjamin Netanyahu was reinstated as prime minister and remains in charge to this day.  During his second term in office, Israeli unilateralism and settlement building continued unabated, multiple wars were fought with Hamas, and the Gaza blockade was maintained, although the Israeli security fence project bogged down with 62% completed.  Netanyahu maintained harsh rhetoric and an aggressive posture towards Israel’s enemies, bottling up Hamas in Gaza and opposing the nuclear talks and treaty with Iran.  No significant peace talks have taken place with the Palestinians since the breakdown of the Oslo process.

In early 2017, it became general knowledge that the Israeli police are conducting a criminal investigation of Netanyahu for crimes such as fraud, breach of trust and bribery.  Though no charges have been filed, the investigation was a constant threat to bring down his government.  However, despite criticisms of Netanyahu, none of the other political parties was able to unseat him and the Israeli government was stalemated for over two years until a coalition government finally unseated him in June 2021.  Now in opposition, Netanyahu has vowed another political comeback.

Is the Two State Solution Dead?

For over four decades, Israeli governments have continued to build settlements in the West Bank, territory that the United Nations has declared should be reserved for a Palestinian state.  Though the Palestinian Authority oversees some self-governing enclaves in the West Bank, in reality, Israel exercises control over all of Palestine, even over the Gaza Strip, which Sharon pulled Israeli troops from in 2005.  As mentioned above, a naval blockade has been in place off the Gaza coast since 2007, severely restricting who can enter and leave the territory.  Similar fortifications on the borders with Israel and Egypt have turned Gaza into what some observers refer to as “the world’s largest outdoor prison camp.”  Meanwhile, the security fence has significantly reduced terrorist violence in Israel, so that many Israelis no longer view the ongoing conflict has a high priority to resolve.

The articles linked below ask the question about whether the Two State Solution is now dead and, if so, what will be the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?  The first article, published by the United States Institute of Peace addresses the “danger of ‘no-solution messaging.'”  The second article, by Foreign Affairs, polls a number of Middle East policy experts on the question of whether a two-state solution is still viable.  You can view the results of their poll, as well as short statements by the experts polled, in the article.  The third article, from Jewish Insider, presents both Israeli and Palestinian views on the question.

https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/02/israeli-palestinian-conflict-danger-no-solution-messaging

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/2021-08-24/two-state-solution-still-viable

https://jewishinsider.com/2022/07/is-a-two-state-solution-viable-today/