Chapter Four: Future Prospects
Part 4. Has Democracy Failed in the Middle East?
When considering the modern Middle East, Westerners often ask the question, “Is Islam compatible with democracy?” Depending upon who you speak with, you are liable to find different answers to this question. Muslims living in the West usually (although not always) argue that Islam is quite compatible with democracy, and that the lack of democracy in Islamic countries is due to corrupt leadership which, ironically enough, is often allied with Western countries such as the United States. Some Islamists view democracy as contradictory to Islamic principles, arguing that the proper form of government within Islam is a theocracy and that a Muslim country should never place the will of the people ahead of the will of God as expressed in the Qur’an and shari`a law. Still other Muslims argue that some forms of democracy can work within the Islamic world, but that they prefer democratic models that allow a larger role for religion within the government, as opposed to Western secular principles of democracy.
The track record of democracy in Islamic countries has been mixed. It is easy to locate examples of countries in which democracy has been unsuccessful. More difficult to answer is the question of why democracy seems to have failed in those countries. Is it really because Islam is undemocratic in its very nature? Or does it make more sense to blame the failures of democracy in Islamic countries on other factors, such as political or cultural conditions, historical experience with democratic forms of government, economic conditions, etc?
The fact is that there are examples of Islamic countries that have utilized democratic practices within their governments. Several of them are located outside the Middle East, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Pakistan. All of these countries would count as younger democracies and all have had flaws in their democracies. Some Islamic countries use certain democratic forms without being true democracies. Iran, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, and Lebanon fit into this category. These countries regularly hold elections, but have placed restrictions on the results of those elections. Some countries, such as Iraq, are new democracies and it remains to be seen how democracy will function in the long run (although given recent events in that country, it certainly appears that democracy is on the verge of failure there yet again). However, recent polls conducted within the Islamic world have indicated a broad popular base of support for democracy within Muslim countries. If democracy has not yet appeared in these countries, it does not seem to be because most Muslims view democracy as being opposed to Islamic values.
Democracy in Turkey
Turkey is a country that has been using democratic processes since the 1940s. It has had its ups and downs, with elected governments being removed from power in military coups several times (1960, 1971, 1980, 1996). Each time this has happened the military has tweaked the constitution or the laws, sometimes banned certain political parties, and then stepped aside to allow another election to take place. The military has justified these coups by identifying itself as the keepers of the legacy of Ataturk. When they have intervened in the government, it has been because they believed that the secular identity of the Turkish Republic was being threatened. However, European pressure on Turkey to strengthen civilian control over the military in preparation for EU membership helped to weaken military influence since the “soft coup” of 1997, providing an opportunity for the Islamist AKP party to take power in 2002.
In 2002 the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by former Istanbul mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan, swept into power on a moderate Islamic platform. The AKP claimed to be committed to Turkey’s secular principles, to freedom of speech and of religion, and to Turkey’s attempts to join the European Union. It was a stunning transition in the most secular of Middle Eastern countries, the land of Ataturk.The AKP’s liberal economic policies, in the midst of an economic crisis, helped it gained support. The election was heavily contested. AKP only obtained 35% of the popular vote but controlled nearly two thirds of the seats in parliament due to divisions among the main secularist parties. Erdogan was initially banned from serving as prime minister due to his conviction in 1998 for publicly reciting a poem that incited racial intolerance, so that AKP co-founder Abdullah Gül initially became prime minister. The ban was overturned in 2003, allowing Erdogan to take office as prime minister.
The AKP had a number of successes in its early years. Turkey’s economy boomed in the early 2000s and the AKP gained the reputation for solid economic management.Erdogan actively pursued Turkish membership in the European Union, but became disillusioned when he realized the strong opposition of some EU states to the idea of Turkish membership.In 2012, Erdogan negotiated an historic agreement between the Turkish government and the Kurdish minority in eastern Turkey. However, in recent years relations between the government and the Kurdish movements have deteriorated, resulting in more violence.Erdogan also pushed through constitutional changes in 2007 and 2010 and managed to gain control over the military through appointments of cronies into high positions. However, he was beginning to demonstrate considerable authoritarian tendencies.
In 2013, public protests in Gezi Park (Istanbul) decried the growing AKP authoritarianism. The government cracked down harshly on protestors. Later that year a corruption scandal broke, involving key government ministers and Erdogan allies. Erdogan blamed the Hizmet party, founded by Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, and closed some of their schools.In 2014, Erdogan moved from the position of Prime Minister to that of President, and later managed to eliminate the position of Prime Minister. Some criticized this move as a power grab, along with ongoing allegations of corruption.In July 2016 members of the military attempted a coup d’etat, but it was defeated by the AKP, with the support of many civilians. Erdogan has blamed Hizmet and issued a major crackdown on journalists, school teachers, and any other people associated with the party. Thousands remain under arrest without proper trial.
In light of Erdogan’s crackdown on all opposition following the attempted coup, many observers have argued that Turkey’s long-established democracy is in jeopardy. Erdogan’s commitment to democracy has been questioned and the AKP’s early acceptance of democratic principles is being seen by some as simply a strategy used to gain power. With the recent abandonment of Turkey’s pursuit to join the EU, the external pressure from Western countries for liberal reform has been neutralized. Secularists, liberals and moderate Islamists, such as Hizmet, have been brutally repressed and stripped of their influence in the last two years. Meanwhile, Erdogan has used his 17 years in power to place supporters in all of the key positions within the country. He maintains popularity through the use of fear-mongering, asserting that terrorists, imperialists, and other “enemies” are a threat to Turkey’s independence.
One encouraging sign that Turkish democracy is not dead was AKP defeats at the polls in Turkey’s two most important cities (Ankara and Istanbul) in 2019. Even after Erdogan forced the Istanbul election to be re-run, the AKP candidate still lost. However, with a big presidential election looming in 2023, Erdogan has pushed through changes in election laws that will strengthen his party’s chances at the expense of rival parties. With high inflation and economic struggles plaguing the country, it remains to be seen whether Erdogan will be able to continue to manipulate Turkish laws to bolster his hold on power.
Democracy in Israel and the Arab countries
For the most part, Arab countries have so far been unsuccessful in establishing true democracies. Algeria had a short fling with democracy in the early 1990s, but when the polls brought an Islamist party into power, the military stepped in and cancelled elections. This resulted in a bloody ten year civil war that finally came to an end in 2022. Following the Arab Spring, Egypt held a free election in 2012 which brought the Islamist Muslim Brothers into power. That experiment lasted for a year before the military took over in a coup in July 2013. Iraq has held democratic elections since 2005, but there are a number of problems with Iraqi democracy included partisan divisions, corruption and security threats. For instance, the Iraqi parliament was deadlocked and unable to choose a president and a prime minister for almost a year following elections in October 2021.
For several years following the Arab Spring, Tunisia seemed to be making progress towards democratic government, holding a series of free elections between 2011 and 2021. However, the government was frequently divided, and thus unable to push through significant reforms, leaving many poorer Tunisians, and those living in rural areas, feeling that their circumstances had not improved. Furthermore, the country became unsettled by a series of terrorist attacks and growing frustration over ineffective governance by squabbling politicians. In 2019, Tunisians elected a political outsider, Kais Saied, as president. He took advantage of the COVID 19 crisis to dismiss the prime minister and suspend parliament on July 25, 2021, instituting an autocratic regime. The one Arab Spring country that had made progress toward democracy now sees that progress being jeopardized with the return of authoritarian rule.
Israelis have long boasted that their country is the one true democracy in the Middle East. Indeed, there is evidence to suggest that this is the case. The country has a strong tradition of multiparty democracy and independent institutions that protect civil liberties. However, Freedom House notes, “the political leadership and many in society have discriminated against Arab and other ethnic or religious minority populations resulting in systematic disparities in areas including political representation, criminal justice, education, and economic opportunity.” Things are even worse in the Occupied Territories of Gaza and the West Bank. Since Hamas won a 2006 election in the Palestinian Authority, there has been a civil war between Hamas and Fatah, leaving Hamas in charge of Gaza and Fatah in charge of the West Bank, and there have been no free elections since then. Furthermore, Israel has blockaded Gaza and places numerous restrictions on Palestinians in the West Bank, such that neither territory can be said to be truly free.
Democracy in the Middle East: Is there hope for the future?
All this paints a bleak picture of the future of democracy in the region. But all hope is not lost. Regionwide polls continue to show that many residents are tired of autocracy and desire more participatory governments. Economic, international and political conditions have so far not been conducive for the development of democracy in the Middle East, but that may not always be the case. Though the Arab Spring appears for now to have failed to change things for the better, it is important to recognize that it took European nations a long time to establish successful democracies. In fact, there was a series of revolutions in Europe during 1848 that bear some resemblances to the Arab Spring. Within a few years of those revolutions, authoritarian leaders were back in charge, but over the long run most European states eventually transitioned to successful democracies. Most Middle Eastern countries have been independent for less than eighty years. There may still be some hope for democracy in the Middle East.
The following links discuss the topic of democracy in the Middle East. The first five links are to Freedom House reports on electoral freedom in Israel, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. The sixth link is to the website of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, which refers to the Middle East as “the most authoritarian region in the world.” The final link is to the results of an opinion poll called “Arab Barometer” which was conducted in Arab countries in October 2018 on Arab views about democracy.
https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2021
https://freedomhouse.org/country/iraq/freedom-world/2020
https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2022
https://freedomhouse.org/country/egypt/freedom-world/2022
https://freedomhouse.org/country/turkey/freedom-world/2022
