Part 5. Another Middle Eastern Cold War

Saudis vs. Iran

Hesitant to take each other on directly, Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed different proxies in several Middle Eastern conflicts in recent years.  Each country has superpower allies, with the US supporting Saudi Arabia, and Russia and China providing support for Iran.  Though divided on sectarian lines, the cold war is mostly political and economic in nature, as the two spar for regional hegemony.  However, sectarian rhetoric is used to stir up support, particularly by the Saudis against Iran.

The conflict dates back to the Iranian revolution, when Iran’s theocratic government challenged the Saudi claim to Islamic leadership, and Sunni-Shi’ite clashes took place during the pilgrimage.  Saudi-led initiatives in recent years have sought to isolate Iran.  In January 2020, the US sided with Saudi Arabia, unleashing an air-strike on Iranian forces in Iraq, which killed the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.  The attack was in retribution for a September 2019 drone attack on a Saudi oil processing, presumed to have been launched by Iran.

The Abraham Accords: New Alliances in the Region

40 years after the Camp David Accords, and 25 years after Jordan’s peace agreement with Israel, a flurry of peace accords were signed between Israel and Arab states at the end of President Trump’s term in office, negotiated by Jared Kushner and the American attorney Avi Berkowitz.  They began with the Abraham Accords, signed by Israel with the leaders of the UAE and Bahrain.

In December 2020, Morocco agreed to establish diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for US recognition of Morocco’s claims in the Western Sahara and US willingness to sell drones to the country.  Sudan made a similar deal to recognize Israel in October 2020 in exchange for being removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, opening up possibilities for future economic aid.

The fact that many Arab countries are now formally recognizing Israel shows both that, after 70 years, Arab governments are accepting the reality that Israel is here to stay and the Palestinian plight is no longer considered a top priority among their constituencies.  Also, some of these countries (UAE and Morocco) have been dealing unofficially with Israel for years.  They were willing to make their recognition official for the right price.  Finally, it has become clear that Arab Gulf states now consider Iran to be a much bigger threat than Israel.  With the possibility of further US withdrawal from the region, an alliance with Israel is now being seen as an asset.  Even the Saudis have sent out feelers to negotiate with Israel, and a Saudi-Israel deal is no longer unthinkable.

Initial indications, two years on, is that the Abraham Accords have been an economic success.  Increased access to Israeli investment and technology, coupled with rising demand for Gulf petroleum following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil, has created a situation that The Economist refers to as “boom time in the Gulf.”  The news magazine predicts that “the six Gulf states . . . could earn $3.5trn over the next five years . . . Even as energy enriches the Gulf . . . the second force at work is a new alignment of power in the Middle East.  Over the past decade Iran has established a sphere of influence across a northern belt including Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.  A reaction is in full swing as most Gulf states, Egypt, Israel and other grow closer. . . This nacsnt bloc is partly about developing common defences against Iranian drones and missiles, probably using Israeli technology.  But it is also a bet that trade can make these countries richer in a region with puny cross-border links” (The Economist, September 24-30, 2022).

The following articles discuss the changing alliances in the Middle East following the Abraham Accords.  The first, by the German news agency DW, discusses how the UAE and Israel have moved from being nominal enemies to allies.  The second article publishing by the Brookings-Doha on “The emergence of GCC-Israel relations in a changing Middle East.”  The third is an Al-Jazeera article on Israel’s relationships with the Arab states.

https://www.dw.com/en/israel-and-uae-how-nominal-enemies-became-allies/a-60614394

https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-emergence-of-gcc-israel-relations-in-a-changing-middle-east/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/28/blinken-and-arab-foreign-ministers-meet-at-negev-summit