Chapter Four: Future Prospects
Part 2. Civil Wars and Refugee Crises in the Middle East
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, civil wars broke out in several Middle Eastern countries. Atrocities committed in wars fought in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and other places have created a huge refugee crisis, as civilians fled in fear for their lives. It is estimated that between four to seven million refugees have come from Syria alone.
Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon have been the main recipients of these refugees. Even with financial assistance from the UN and Western governments, the presence of so many refugees strains the capacities of these governments to respond. Other refugees are internally displaced within their own countries.
Civil War in Syria
Protests began in Syria in connection with the Arab Spring in March 2011. They were violently suppressed by the government and escalated into armed conflict within a few months. Multiple factions were involved with the conflict, including secular leaning Sunni groups as well as Salafi jihadist groups.
At different times, rebels were supported by Turkey, the Gulf states, and the United States. The government forces of Bashar al-Asad were supported by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. The increasing prominence of radical Islamists such as ISIS soured most Western countries on supporting the rebels. Meanwhile, consistent support from Asad’s allies, in connection with the effective use of divide and conquer tactics has led to a victory by the Asad government.
It is estimated that between 300,000-500,000 people have been killed in the conflict. According to the Christian relief organization, World Vision the Syrian civil war has produced more than 6.8 million refugees with another 6.9 million displaced within Syria. The largest numbers of Syrian refugees are in Turkey and Jordan. 12 million Syrians are designated as food insecure, with 5.8 million children in need of humanitarian aid to meet their basic needs. As the Syrian war draws to a close, many refugees remain afraid to return home for fear of retribution from the Syrian government.
Civil War in Libya
Civil war broke out in the oil rich country of Libya in connection with the Arab Spring. NATO support for the rebels in 2011 led to the defeat and death of Muammar Khaddafi, who had ruled the country as a dictator for over 40 years.
Libya disintegrated into competing forces, each of whom grabbed its own region to serve as a base. Tripoli is ruled by the Government of National Accord (GNA), which has been recognized by the UN but only controls a small portion of the country. The GNA is also backed by Turkey, Qatar and Italy. Another group, which calls itself the Libyan National Army (LNA) is backed by Russia, Egypt and the Gulf States. The foreign powers send weapons, drones, and mercenaries. Ongoing atrocities create more casualties and displaced people. Many Libyan refugees have immigrated to Tunisia and Egypt. It is thought that perhaps 1/3rd of the population of Libya has been displaced by the war.
A peace treaty signed in October 2020, leading to the establishment of an interim government in March 2021, offers hope that the conflict may finally be nearing an end.
Civil War in Yemen
Yemen is another country that experienced civil war following the Arab Spring. Yemen has a history of civil war and division dating back to the 1950s, but it had functioned under a united government since 1990.
Following the fall of president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2012, a Zaydi Shi’ite group known as the Houthis captured the capital of Sana’a in September 2014. Government forces, supported with troops and weapons from a coalition of Sunni countries led by the Saudis, sought to dislodge the Houthis. Meanwhile, Iran sent support to back the Houthis. The presence of Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen, along with forces loyal to former president Saleh, only serves to complicate matters.
Though the Saudis initially predicted a quick victory, the conflict has bogged down into a stalemate. According to Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor (see article linked below), “About 23.4 million Yemenis (73% of the population) have become dependent on humanitarian aid. The military operations had caused the internal displacement of 4.3 million Yemenis by March 2022. About 40% of them are living in unofficial displacement camps and do not have adequate access to basic services.”
Political Unrest in Iraq
Ongoing political unrest and sectarian struggles in Iraq has led to a large number of refugees into neighboring countries in the nineteen years since the US invasion. The Watson Institute from Brown University (see article below) estimates “As of 2021, 9.2 million Iraqis are internally displaced or refugees abroad. The refugee crisis has impacted both Iraqis who fled and the communities they left behind. Engineers, artists, lawyers, academics, doctors, and other professionals were among the first to escape the war.” Many of these refugees live in neighboring countries such as Jordan.
In addition to the refugee crises mentioned above, there remains the continuing problem of Palestinian refugees in multiple countries around the world. These ongoing refugee crises not only create considerable human misery and deplete their former countries of valuable human resources, but they also create an economic burden and other problems for the host countries to which they flee.
The articles linked below discuss the problem of refugees in the modern Middle East. The first two articles are the ones cited above on Yemeni and Iraqi refugees. The third link is from the UN Refugees Agency’s global report on the Middle East and North Africa. The last link is to an article by the Middle East Institute from Oct 2021 entitled “Addressing the Refugee Crisis.”
