5.8 Evaluating Voter Behavior Models in Ohio Elections

The “Five Ohios” Model 

Ohio used to be considered a swing state, and political scientists used the Five Ohios model to explain voter behavior. This model divided the state into five distinct regions, each with its own political tendencies and priorities:

• Northeast Ohio – Traditionally Democratic, influenced by industrial and union backgrounds.

• Northwest Ohio – More Republican, with agricultural and rural influences.

• Central Ohio – A mix of urban and suburban areas with diverse political views.

• Southwest Ohio – Strongly Republican, driven by conservative suburban and rural populations.

• Southeast Ohio – Leaning Republican, with a focus on coal and rural interests.

This model was effective in highlighting the diversity within the state and how different regions could swing elections based on varying economic priorities and social issues.

The Shift to a Rural-Suburban-Urban Dynamic   

In recent years, the Five Ohio’s model has become less effective in explaining statewide political performance as Ohio has solidified as a Republican stronghold. For example, while urban Cincinnati has shifted more towards the Democratic side, the postindustrial Mahoning Valley has moved Republican. Moreover, other blue-collar areas, especially along the Ohio River, have seen a marked shift to Republican support. The new understanding of voter behavior in Ohio is better captured by the rural-suburban-urban dynamic, which focuses on the broader geographic trends that have come to dominate electoral outcomes across the country.