5.4 Polling & Public Opinion

Polling is the process of gathering information about public opinion by surveying a group of people who represent a larger population. Public opinion refers to the collective attitudes, beliefs, and views of a population or specific group on key topics. Polling provides a way to understand how people think and what they prioritize, offering insights into topics like political preferences, social issues, or policy support.

Polling organizations, such as Pew Research Center and Gallup, conduct surveys to learn how different groups think about public issues and politics. They might ask about major policy topics such as climate change, healthcare, or the economy. They also study political characteristics like party affiliation, voting behavior, and trust in government. These surveys collect data from thousands of respondents, often selected to ensure diversity in age, gender, race, geography, and other factors.

The key to polling is random sampling. Instead of asking every eligible voter in Ohio or the United States—a complete census that would be costly and time-consuming—pollsters select a smaller group of people chosen at random to reflect the larger population. Because the sample is random, each person has an equal chance of being selected. This reduces bias and makes the results more reliable.

The math behind polling is straightforward. If you randomly select about 1,000 people from a large population, the results are very likely to be within about 3 percentage points of what you would find if you surveyed everyone. This range is called the margin of error. For example, if a candidate is polling at 52% with a margin of error of ±3%, the true level of support in the full population could be anywhere between 49% and 55%.

Analysts then use statistical methods to interpret the results, searching for patterns that reveal trends in public opinion. They might compare responses between generations to see how attitudes differ, or track how opinions change over time. By analyzing this data, researchers can identify shifts in values, predict voting behavior, and better understand public priorities.

One recent example shows how polling plays out in Ohio. An Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters in August 2025 found Republican Vivek Ramaswamy leading Democrat Amy Acton by 10 points in the 2026 governor’s race. In a matchup with former Congressman Tim Ryan, Ramaswamy’s lead narrowed slightly to 8 points. About 10% of voters remained undecided. This highlights how early polling provides a snapshot rather than a prediction.